About the job
Metaculus stands at the forefront of public forecasting, boasting more than 2,800,000 forecasts spanning over 20,000 questions. We function as an essential epistemic infrastructure akin to Wikipedia and Our World In Data, dedicated to delivering reliable and precise information across a spectrum of topics, particularly within the realms of science and technology. Our mission is to empower individuals to model, comprehend, predict, and effectively navigate the world’s most significant and intricate challenges.
As a Research Engineer with a specialization in Forecast Coherence & World Models, you will be a trailblazer in crafting technologies that enhance the transparency and accessibility of forecasts and their foundational world models. This role positions you at the dynamic intersection of software engineering and epistemics, where you will develop tools that assist domain experts and forecasters in creating more coherent predictions, thereby facilitating improved decision-making on multifaceted, interdisciplinary issues.
Your responsibilities will involve a strong emphasis on independent experimentation and rapid prototyping. You will conduct experiments using large language models (LLMs), design and test innovative methodologies, and create minimum viable products (MVPs) to validate conceptual ideas. Additionally, you will devise methods to elicit, aggregate, and visualize the interconnections among forecasts, including causal relationships and necessary conditions, while incorporating AI to aid in constructing world models and identifying critical variables that could enhance forecast accuracy.